88
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
($/bbl)
Forward
Brent
Broker Max
Broker Min
AverageHistorical
Brent Price: $93/bbl
Source: Bloomberg (July 2014).
Bloomberg projects the Brent crude oil spot price will fall from an average of $105.7 per barrel in 2012 to annual
averages of $101.3 per barrel and $96.8 per barrel in 2014 and 2015, respectively, reflecting the increasing supply of
liquid fuels from non-OPEC countries.
According to the BP Statistical Review, global natural gas consumption grew by 1.4% in 2013 as compared to 2012.
Growth in natural gas consumption in 2012 was above average in South & Central America, the Middle East, and North
America, where South & Central America recorded the largest increase at 4.2% as compared to 2012. Global natural gas
production grew by 1.1% in 2013. The Middle East recorded the largest volume increase at 4.5%.
Outlook of demand for and supply of primary energy
The pace of the global economic recovery, and the resulting growth in demand for energy, is expected to be the key
driver of global energy prices in the medium-term. Key longer-term factors which are expected to influence the supply
and demand of energy include transport, production and investment (which are linked to GDP growth), governments’
attitude towards climate change and energy security, the substitution of non-fossil fuel-based energy sources in OECD
countries and political instability in nations that are rich in fossil resources. According to Outlook for Energy, global
energy demand is expected to be 710 quadrillion British Thermal Units (“
BTUs
”) by 2040, or approximately 36% higher
than in 2010. Of the projected 710 quadrillion BTUs of energy demand in 2040, oil demand is expected to be 221
quadrillion BTUs, while gas demand is projected to be 190 quadrillion BTU. Energy demand in non-OECD nations is
projected to be approximately 65% higher by 2040 than in 2010. Meanwhile, according to the Outlook for Energy, the
global economy is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 2.8% from 2010 to 2040, with non-OECD countries
contributing slightly more than half of total growth.
The following shows projected world GDP growth to 2040.
