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least a 10% probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the 3P estimate. 3P reserves
include 2P reserves. The 3P reserves information included in the Offering Memorandum is derived from
reserves information contained in the CPR.
This Offering Memorandum also includes descriptions of contingent and prospective resources, which have been
extracted from the CPR. Special uncertainties exist with respect to the estimation of contingent and prospective resources
in addition to those set forth above that apply to reserves.
Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as at a given date, to be potentially
recoverable from known accumulations by application of development projects, but which are not currently
considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingent resources are a class of
discovered, potentially recoverable resources. Prospective resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum
that are estimated, as at a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by
application of future development projects. Volumes and values associated with contingent and prospective
resources should be considered highly speculative and may necessitate material revision subsequent to the date on
which they have been estimated.
According to the definitions and guidelines specified in SPE-PRMS, resources are further categorised based on:
For contingent resources:
The “low estimate” scenario of contingent resources (“
1C
”) is considered to be a conservative estimate of the
quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation by a project, if that project goes ahead. If
probabilistic methods are used, for resources to be categorised as 1C there should be at least a 90% probability
(P90) that the quantities of contingent resources actually recovered will equal or exceed the low estimate.
The “best estimate” scenario of contingent resources (“
2C
”) is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity
that will actually be recovered from the accumulation by a project, if that project goes ahead. It is the most
realistic assessment of the recoverable quantities if only a single result were reported. If probabilistic methods
are used, for resources to be categorised as 2C there should be at least a 50% probability (P50) that the
quantities of contingent resources actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
The “high estimate” scenario of contingent resources (“
3C
”) is considered to be an optimistic estimate of the
quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation by a project, if that project goes ahead. If
probabilistic methods are used, for resources to be categorised as 3C there should be at least a 10% probability
(P10) that the quantities of contingent resources actually recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate.
Contingent resources are presented as “unrisked” in the sense that estimates of contingent resources do not reflect
economic uncertainty and commerciality.
For prospective resources:
The “low estimate” scenario of prospective resources is considered to be a conservative estimate of the quantity
that will actually be recovered from the accumulation by a project, if the accumulation is discovered and
developed. If probabilistic methods are used, for resources to be included in the “low estimate” scenario of
prospective resources, there should be at least a 90% probability (P90) that the quantities of prospective
resources actually recovered will equal or exceed the low estimate.
The “best estimate” scenario of prospective resources is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that
will actually be recovered from the accumulation by a project, if the accumulation is discovered and developed.
it is the most realistic assessment of the recoverable quantities if only a single result were reported. If
probabilistic methods are used, for resources to be included in the “best estimate” scenario of prospective
resources, there should be at least a 50% probability (P50) that the quantities of prospective resources actually
recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
The “high estimate” scenario of prospective resources is considered to be an optimistic estimate of the quantity
that will actually be recovered from the accumulation by a project, if the accumulation is discovered and
developed. If probabilistic methods are used, for resources to be included in the “high estimate” scenario of
prospective resources, there should be at least a 10% probability (P10) that the quantities of prospective
resources actually recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate.
